New Delhi, 14 February, 2022 (GPN): Economy has resumed its normal growth trajectory in the month of January 2022 supported by a sustained recovery in the key economic indicators, said Mr Pradeep Multani, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry, in a press statement issued here today.

The PHDCCI Economy GPS Index for January 2022 has increased to 132.4 as compared to 123.5 for December 2021, though Economy GPS Index was lower in December 2021 as compared to November 2021 because of various uncertainties caused by the third wave of Coronavirus, which impacted the consumers’ as well as investors’ sentiments once again in December 2021, said Mr Pradeep Multani.

PHDCCI Economy GPS Index captures the momentum in supply side business activity through growth in GST collections, demand side consumer behaviour through volume growth in passenger vehicle sales and sensitivity of policy reforms and impact of domestic and international economic and business environment through the movement of SENSEX at the base year of 2018-19=100, said the Industry Body.

 

Passenger vehicles recorded a sequential growth of 16.2%, increasing from 2,19,421 units in December 2021 to 2,55,057 units in January 2022. The sequential growth of GST collections has increased by 6.6% from Rs. 129,780 crore in December 2021 to Rs. 138,394 crore in January 2022. The sequential growth of SENSEX (average of daily close) has increased by 3.3% in January 2022 from 57663 in December 2021 to 59586 in January 2022, said Mr. Pradeep Multani.

Economic recovery so far (Sequential)

PHDCCI Economy GPS Index 2018-19=100	January 2021	February 2021	March 2021	April 2021	May 2021	June 2021	July 2021	August 2021	September 2021	October 2021	November 2021	December 2021	January 2022
	121.7	122.0	122.9	124.3	91.5	107.5	119.7	116.7	113.1	127.0	125.2	123.5	132.4

Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI Economy GPS Index.

The PHDCCI Economy GPS Index during the period April–January of FY 2021-22 stands at 118.1, which is 28.7 points higher than April–January FY 2020-2021 period index of 89.4, said Mr. Pradeep Multani.

The PHDCCI Economy GPS Index at 132.4 for January 2022 is higher by 10.7 points from the Economy GPS Index for January 2021 at 121.7, said Mr. Pradeep Multani.

Economic recovery so far (Y-o-Y)

PHDCCI Economy GPS Index 2018-19=100	January 2018	January 2019	January 2020	January 2021	January 2022
	96.7	101.4	107.1	121.7	132.4

Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI Economy GPS Index.

PHDCCI Economy GPS Index has shown sharp recovery from the lows of 39.6 for April 2020 to 124.3 for April 2021, 91.5 for May 2021 as compared with 50.1 for May 2020, 107.5 for June 2021 as compared with 75.1 for June 2020, 119.7 for July 2021 as compared with 85.6 for July 2020, 116.7 for August 2021 as compared with 90.5 for August 2020, 113.1 for September 2021 as compared with 100.2 for September 2020, 127.0 for October 2021 as compared with 109.6 for October 2020, 125.2 for November 2021 as compared with 106.9 for November 2020, 123.5 for December 2021 as compared with 114.8 for December 2020 and 132.4 for January 2022 as compared with 121.7 for January 2021.

Chart 1: GPS Index: Monthly Trend

Chart 2: Movement of GDP and GPS over the quarters

Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI Economy GPS Index.

 

Going ahead, the pace of economic activity is expected to remain strong on the back of various structural reforms undertaken by the Government during the last 22 months, said Mr. Pradeep Multani.

 

The recent budget announced by the Government for the FY 2022-23 looks into the future while keeping a close eye on the ground. The Budget is a step forward towards the vision of creating an Atmanirbhar Bharat and reflects a consistency in government’s approach in making India a Modern, Developed and Inclusive nation, said Mr. Pradeep Multani.

 

PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PHDCCI) Economy GPS Index is a composite index of 3 lead economic and business indicators with base year at 2018-19=100, which measures the broad economic and business activity. The PHDCCI Economy GPS Index, based on the monthly values of three high frequency indicators viz., GST collection (Rs. Crore), Passenger Vehicle Sales (units) and SENSEX (daily average), helps to find the direction of the economy.  The three broad indicators are representing not only demand and supply in the economy but also revenue growth of the government and movement of financial markets in the country. GST collections indicate the momentum of business activity, passenger vehicle sales is broad indicator of demand activity in the economy and movement of SENSEX indicate mood of both domestic and foreign investors.

Movement of Economy GPS over the months

Month- Year	Economy GPS Index
Jul-17	72.3
Aug-17	96.8
Sep-17	98.2
Oct-17	94.9
Nov-17	92.0
Dec-17	88.0
Jan-18	96.7
Feb-18	93.6
Mar-18	97.8
Apr-18	102.1
May-18	100.1
Jun-18	97.7
Jul-18	100.9
Aug-18	101.2
Sep-18	101.4
Oct-18	99.8
Nov-18	97.4
Dec-18	93.7
Jan-19	101.4
Feb-19	98.8
Mar-19	105.6
Apr-19	104.0
May-19	98.1
Jun-19	97.3
Jul-19	94.3
Aug-19	91.0
Sep-19	92.4
Oct-19	102.0
Nov-19	103.9
Dec-19	101.0
Jan-20	107.1
Feb-20	103.2
Mar-20	80.0
Apr-20	39.6
May-20	50.1
Jun-20	75.1
Jul-20	85.6
Aug-20	90.5
Sep-20	100.2
Oct-20	109.6
Nov-20	106.9
Dec-20	114.8
Jan-21	121.7
Feb-21	122.0
Mar-21	122.9
Apr-21	124.3
May-21	91.5
June-21	107.5
July-21	119.7
August-21	116.7
September-21	113.1
October -21	127.0
November-21	125.2
December-21	123.5
January-22	132.4

Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI GPS Index